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    ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND HOUSING INVESTMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL VAR ANALYSIS FOR THE EURO AREA (EA-19)
    (Fintechaliance, 2026) Tuncay, Cenap Mengu; Akar, Nuri Cagri
    The housing sector is considered one of the key factors of macroeconomic fluctuations. Consequently, analyzing the scale of housing investments within economies and identifying the primary drivers influencing these investments is of major importance. Since one of the variables determining investments is uncertainty, and housing investments are affected by uncertainty, it is important to determine to what extent uncertainty has an impact on housing investments. While many studies have examined the effect of uncertainty on housing prices and returns, the effect on housing investments has rarely been discussed. The dynamic impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on housing investments remains nearly unmentioned in the Euro Area-19 (EA-19). According to Real Options Theory, uncertainty leads to investment delays. If this relationship holds for the housing market, new construction investments should fluctuate in response to uncertainty, meaning that dwellings, which can serve as a proxy indicator for housing investments, may be affected by uncertainty. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between the Europe-wide EPU Index and the EA-19 Dwellings Index by using monthly data (1994 M2-2023 M8). In the literature, this study is the first article to investigate the dynamic relationship between EPU and housing investments for EA-19 by performing Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis. Based on the VAR analysis, the EPU index produces virtually no statistically significant effect on the dwellings index in the EA-19, although a unidirectional Granger causality from EPU to housing investment is detected. Based on this result, it is also possible to claim that political uncertainties in the EA-19 may not be one of the reasons for economic fluctuations due to housing investments. This study contributes to further research in this field, as it is the first study analyzing the effect of EPU on housing investments in the EA-19.
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    THE ROLE OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF US MONETARY POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY
    (Economic And Financial Research Assoc - Efad, 2025) Akar, Nuri Cagri; Varlik, Cemil
    This article aims to examine the impacts of US monetary policy (MP) changes on the Turkish economy. A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model is estimated for the period 2002:01-2017:12, during which a flexible exchange rate regime was adopted in the Turkish economy. According to the impulse-response analysis, the Turkish interest rate responds positively and significantly to the US Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR). AThis result shows that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) MP follows the FED's MP, consistent with the dilemma hypothesis of Rey (2015). The analysis also demonstrates that both the EFFR and the VIX have a negative impact on net total capital inflows to the Turkish economy. The impulse-responses for the three components of net capital inflows indicate important conclusions. Firstly, neither EFFR nor VIX has a significant impact on Net Foreign Direct Investment (NFDI) inflows. Secondly, Net Portfolio Investments (NPI) respond significantly to the VIX but not to the EFFR. Thirdly, Net Other Investments (NOI) respond significantly to the EFFR but not to the VIX. These findings indicate that the NOI component plays a direct and major role in the emergence of the US MP's spillover effects on the Turkish MP.