Yazar "Kurtoglu, Seval" seçeneğine göre listele

Listeleniyor 1 - 2 / 2
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    Olive Oil Production Forecasts for a Macro Perspective during 2024-2027
    (Springer, 2024) Kurtoglu, Seval; Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih; Govez, Elif
    Olive oil, which is part of the Mediterranean diet, is one of the most important foods for a healthy diet. The number of countries that produce these important foods has not increased significantly over the years. However, the number of exporting countries tripled in the same period. This study aimed to predict the countries that will lead olive oil production globally between 2024 and 2027 by using the production data from the period 1961-2023. The data were analyzed using the ARMA model in the statistical program SAS. According to the results for the 10-year period of 1961-1970, there were 25-26 olive-oil-producing countries in the world. Approximately 31.26% of olive oil production was in Italy, 28.32% in Spain, 13.14% in Greece, 7.80% in Turkey, and 5.74% in Portugal. According to the average production for the period 2024-2027, it is estimated that 34 and 35 countries will produce olive oil, with 29.93%, 9.08%, 9.06%, 9.00%, and 8.90% of the world's production provided by Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco, and Italy, respectively. These five countries account for 65.96% of the world's production level. The estimation results of this study found that there are many exporting countries other than the leading producer countries thus showing that the producer countries do not have a forceful marketing concept, and therefore intermediaries emerge. For this reason, producer countries such as Turkey, Tunisia, and Morocco, which are not very competent in marketing, will have more say in the market by using their resources more effectively and making more effective strategies with an improved production and marketing approach.
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    The role of Turkey in the world hazelnut production and exporting
    (United Arab Emirates Univ, 2022) Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih; Kurtoglu, Seval; Serefoglu, Coskun; Algur, Zafer
    The aim of this study is to estimate the future of the global hazelnut sector for 2019-2025 using the data of 1961-2018. ARIMA model was used to forecast hazelnut production and export quantity. Hirschman Herfindahl Index (HHI) and Concentration Ratios (CR) have been used to determine market status. According to HHI and CR, the world hazelnut market was oligopoly in 1961-2018 and the biggest player in this market was Turkey. Because Turkey was the largest manufacturer and marketer of hazelnut in the industry, 64% of the production and 67% of the exports of world hazelnut were provided by Turkey as the average in the period 2011-2018. Turkey thus determines the world price in hazelnut. According to the concentration ratio, CR1 will be 0.63 and 0.67 in the export and production; this means that about 63-67% of the world hazelnut production and export will have been provided by Turkey from 2019 to 2025. The number of countries producing, and exporting hazelnuts has risen from 13 to 32, and 9 to 58, respectively in the past fifty-eight years in the world. According to the findings of this study, it was forecasted that the competition degree of Turkey???s hazelnut export market will decrease during the period from 2019 to 2025. The results obtained from this study will help policymakers to monitor the way for hazelnut marketing in Turkey.