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Öğe Application of Third-Order Schemes to Improve the Convergence of the Hardy Cross Method in Pipe Network Analysis(Hindawi Ltd, 2021) Niazkar, Majid; Turkkan, Gokcen EryilmazIn this study, twenty-two new mathematical schemes with third-order of convergence are gathered from the literature and applied to pipe network analysis. The presented methods were classified into one-step, two-step, and three-step schemes based on the number of hypothetical discharges utilized in solving pipe networks. The performances of these new methods and Hardy Cross method were compared by solving a sample pipe network considering four different scenarios (92 cases). The results show that the one-step methods improve the rate of convergence of the Hardy Cross method in 10 out of 24 cases (41%), while this improvement was found to be 39 out of 56 cases (69.64%) and 5 out of 8 cases (62.5%) for the two-step and three-step methods, respectively. This obviously indicates that the modified schemes, particularly the three-step methods, improve the performance of the original loop corrector method by taking lower number of iterations with the compensation of relatively more computational efforts.Öğe Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey(Springer Wien, 2022) Hirca, Tugce; Turkkan, Gokcen Eryilmaz; Niazkar, MajidExamining historical variations of hydroclimatic variables can provide crucial information about changes of water resources in a water cycle. In this study, the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods were applied to 56-year precipitation data collected at 8 measuring stations. These stations are located in Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), which has a significant amount of annual precipitation and hydroelectric potential in Turkey. This study has two objectives: (1) investigating possible changes in the monthly precipitation and (2) comparing the results achieved by a classical (MK) and one of the latest trend analysis methods presented in the literature (IPTA). Based on the results, MK achieved no trend for most of months, while it reached an increasing trend for March at most of the stations. Likewise, IPTA determined an increasing trend for March precipitation. However, an increasing/decreasing trend was obtained by IPTA for most of the months and stations. In other words, comparing the trend analysis results obtained by IPTA and MK indicates a significant discrepancy between the numbers of months with detected trends primarily because the former is relatively more sensitive in trend identification. To be more precise, IPTA and MK determined trends in approximately 81.25% and 12.5% of all months, respectively. Furthermore, the former identified quite the same trends in every month which the latter reported a trend. Moreover, the polygon of the mean and standard deviation graphs developed by IPTA provides a year cycle, which brings about useful information for water utility sectors and decision makers of the study area. Finally, the findings of this study contribute to a large amount of research that attempts to explore spatio-temporal variations of hydroclimatic variables around the globe not only to enhance humans' knowledge about changes in a water cycle but also assess climate change impacts.Öğe Assessment of Artificial Intelligence Models for Estimating Lengths of Gradually Varied Flow Profiles(Wiley-Hindawi, 2021) Niazkar, Majid; Mishi, Farshad Hajizadeh; Turkkan, Gokcen EryilmazThe study of water surface profiles is beneficial to various applications in water resources management. In this study, two artificial intelligence (AI) models named the artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP) were employed to estimate the length of six steady GVF profiles for the first time. The AI models were trained using a database consisting of 5154 dimensionless cases. A comparison was carried out to assess the performances of the AI techniques for estimating lengths of 330 GVF profiles in both mild and steep slopes in trapezoidal channels. The corresponding GVF lengths were also calculated by 1-step, 3-step, and 5-step direct step methods for comparison purposes. Based on six metrics used for the comparative analysis, GP and the ANN improve five out of six metrics computed by the 1-step direct step method for both mild and steep slopes. Moreover, GP enhanced GVF lengths estimated by the 3-step direct step method based on three out of six accuracy indices when the channel slope is higher and lower than the critical slope. Additionally, the performances of the AI techniques were also investigated depending on comparing the water depth of each case and the corresponding normal and critical grade lines. Furthermore, the results show that the more the number of subreaches considered in the direct method, the better the results will be achieved with the compensation of much more computational efforts. The achieved improvements can be used in further studies to improve modeling water surface profiles in channel networks and hydraulic structure designs.Öğe Comparison of Statistical Methods to Graphical Method in Precipitation Trend Analysis, A Case Study: Coruh Basin, Turkey(Springer Int Publ Ag, 2022) Hirca, Tugce; Turkkan, Gokcen EryilmazIt is a known fact that the precipitation characteristics will become irregular as a result of climate change resulting from global warming. Trend analysis is one of the most effective methods of observing the effects of climate change on precipitation. This study compares the changes in precipitation with traditional trend analysis methods and graphical method (divided into subcategories using the Z-Score Index). Some preliminary analyzes (missing data estimation, homogeneity check, autocorrelation, and removal of the autocorrelation), which are lacking in many studies in the literature, have been performed. In this context, the monthly total precipitation data of the precipitation stations belonging to the Coruh Basin, one of the most important basins of Turkey, for the period 1972-2011 were used. As a result of the study, it was determined that all the stations' data were homogeneous, and 92% of them were at the Class A level. While 100% trend is determined in Innovative Trend Analysis in total annual precipitation, this rate was just 40% at Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho at 95% confidence. An increasing trend was determined in the high group of total spring precipitation at all stations.Öğe Drought analysis using innovative trend analysis and machine learning models for Eastern Black Sea Basin(Springer Wien, 2024) Niazkar, Majid; Piraei, Reza; Turkkan, Gokcen Eryilmaz; Hirca, Tugce; Gangi, Fabiola; Afzali, Seied HoseinThis study aims to assess the Eastern Black Sea Basin drought conditions. For this purpose, the trend changes in SPI values of 6, 9, 12, and 24 months using innovative trend analysis were examined. Additionally, four machine learning models, including Multiple Linear Regression, Artificial Neural Networks, K Nearest Neighbors, and XGBoost Regressor, are employed to forecast SPI with rainfall data between 1965 and 2020 from eight rainfall stations. The input data for each model was SPI values from lead times of 1 to 6, resulting into 768 unique scenarios. The ML models estimated SPI values better as the SPI duration increased, with the 24-month SPI showing the highest accuracy. The results of SPI forecast indicated that the optimal model and number of input variables varied for each SPI and station, indicating that further studies are required to improve SPI predictions.Öğe A visual application for teaching pipe flow optimization in engineering curricula(Wiley, 2020) Turkkan, Yusuf Alptekin; Turkkan, Gokcen Eryilmaz; Yilmaz, HamidThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the importance of programming in the learning and understanding of water distribution networks. This paper presents the implementation of a programming language C# for applications for teaching water distribution networks calculations at both undergraduate and graduate levels. A user's guide is also prepared for the software which includes the theory of hydraulic and optimization calculations. There are many ways to design water distribution networks. Hardy Cross method is very often used for optimization of networks. Thus, Hardy Cross optimization method was preferred in this study. It is a perfect study to implement as an educational tool at undergraduate and graduate levels of education.
