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Öğe A Social Approach to Environmental Sustainability: The Nexus Well-Being, Tourism, Digitalization and Renewable Energy in Scandinavian Countries(Wiley, 2025) Isik, Cem; Ongan, Serdar; Aydin, Buket; Aydin, Rahman; Imamoglu, Ilyas KaysThis research explores the impact of subjective well-being (SWB) on CO2 emissions in Scandinavian countries based on the need to analyze the effects of social indicators shaping environmental sustainability. The study aims to introduce the Welfare-Based SWB approach to the literature by expanding the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the social welfare dimension. SWB is considered in this study to be a social reflection and indirect measure of economic growth, which is the core determinant in the classical EKC hypothesis. The second-generation cointegration test, the Durbin-Hausman, and AMG long-term forecasting methods were used in this context. According to the empirical findings, SWB and digitalization increase carbon emissions, while tourism revenues and renewable energy consumption reduce emissions. The findings indicate that the classical EKC hypothesis is not confirmed and, similarly, an increase in social welfare (SWB) does not automatically lead to environmental improvement. Therefore, policymakers should develop social policies that will increase environmental sensitivity along with an increase in welfare.Öğe Does Climate Change Vulnerability Cause Energy Vulnerability in Sustainable Development?(Wiley, 2025) Isik, Cem; Ongan, Serdar; Kuziboev, Bekhzod; Imamoglu, Ilyas KaysClimate change and energy security are two fundamental vulnerability areas that interact with each other and hold critical importance for sustainable development goals. This research aims to fill the research gap by investigating the effects of climate change vulnerability (CCV) on the energy vulnerability (EV) relationship, which has not been adequately addressed in the literature, using a large panel dataset covering 74 countries and employing various methodological approaches (MMQR, PLFC, DID). The results of the MMQR model indicate that CCV increases EV across all quantiles. According to the results of the PLFC model, it is revealed that CCV on EV varies depending on the economic development level of countries. This effect is higher in low-income countries. The study also employs the DID model to examine the impact of China's foreign energy investments on countries' EV. According to this model, China's fossil-based energy investments, particularly those in the energy sector, increase the EV of countries. While economic development reduces EV across all quantiles, financial development reduces it in the lower and medium quantiles (25% and 50%); urbanization reduces it in the medium and higher quantiles (50% and 75%). All results show that the interaction between EV and CCV is a multidimensional and dynamic process. Accordingly, policymakers should develop integrated strategies that consider environment and energy policies, economic development, investment type, and environmental risks. Lastly, policymakers should consider energy investments from China not only as a tool for their country's economic growth, but also in terms of energy security and sustainability.Öğe DÖVİZ KURU VE HİSSE SENEDİ FİYATLARI GEÇİŞKENLİĞİ: BİST100 VE ALT ENDEKSLER ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA(2023) Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Aydın, RahmanHisse senedi piyasası ile döviz kurları arasındaki ilişki özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler için araştırılmaktadır. Çünkü bu ülkeler ekonomik büyümeleri için dış tasarruflara ihtiyaç duymaktadırlar. Ayrıca yabancı fonlar da bu piyasalarda var olan fırsatları değerlendirmek üzere farklı sektörlere yatırım yapmayı tercih etmektedirler. Bu sektörlerden biri de hisse senedi piyasasıdır. Hisse senedi piyasasına gelen fonların nedeni ise literatürde farklı teoriler yardımı ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu teoriler, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülke piyasaları üzerine geçerliliği incelenmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada Türkiye’de hisse senedi piyasaları arasında yer alan BİST100, BİST Mali, BİST Hizmet, BİST Sınai ve BİST Teknoloji endeksleri ile döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada beş farklı model kullanılmış ve bu modelleri tahmin etmek üzere ARDL yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. ARDL yönteminden elde edilen bulgulara göre BİST100, BİST Mali ve BİST Hizmet endekslerinde geleneksel teorilerin geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir. BİST Teknoloji endeksinde ise portföy teorisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak BİST Sınai endeksinde ise döviz kuru ile hisse senedi arasında bir ilişki olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Öğe İşgücü Verimliliği ve Mutluluk: OECD Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar(2023) Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Bozma, Kübra; Bozma, GürkanÜretim sürecindeki insan kaynağı, gerek iş ortamındaki gerekse sosyal ortamdaki değişmelerden etkilendiği için bu etkileşim mutluluk düzeylerini ve verimliliklerini de etkileyebilmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada 2015-2021 dönemi yıllık veri setiyle 35 OECD ülke örnekleminde, işgücü verimliliği ve mutluluk ilişkisi panel veri analiziyle incelenmiştir. Araştırma modelinde, bağımlı değişken olarak işgücü verimliliği, bağımsız değişken olarak mutluluk endeksi ve kontrol değişkeni olarak ise ortalama yıllık ücret alınmıştır. Yapılan Driscoll-Kray analizi tahmin sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre mutluluk düzeyinde meydana gelen bir birimlik artışın, işgücü verimliliğini yaklaşık olarak %2.2 arttırabileceği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ortalama yıllık ücretlerde meydana gelecek bir birimlik bir artışın ise işgücü verimliliğini %0.001 kadar artırabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Öğe Measuring Sustainability Under Uncertainty: Introducing Net ESG (N-ESG) Performance(Wiley, 2025) Ongan, Serdar; Isik, Cem; Aydin, Rahman; Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Alvarado, Rafael; Ahmad, MunirThis study examines the reliability of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores in uncertain environments by introducing a new indicator, Net ESG (N-ESG), for the first time. This new index was calculated by subtracting a new ESG-based sustainability uncertainty index (ESGUI) from ESG scores. This study employed Pedroni (2004) and Westerlund (2007) tests, as well as the DOLS method, for 12 developed countries from 2002 to 2020. It analyzed the impact of economic, geopolitical, climate, and energy price-related uncertainties on both ESG and N-ESG through eight different models. Empirical findings indicate that a 1% change in CPU, GPR, EPU, and OPU indices increases ESG by 0.048, 0.355, 0.111, and 0.044 units, respectively, while the same rate of change decreases N-ESG by -6.501, -18.756, -8.972, and -8.193 units, respectively. These results can be interpreted as ESG scores may not fully reflect the true performance of companies in times of uncertainty, while N-ESG provides a more accurate representation of sustainability practices. These results suggest that policymakers should focus their sustainability policies not only on increasing ESG scores but also on preserving the true value of ESG by reducing uncertainty effects.Öğe THE EFFECTS OF GASOLINE PRICE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND FOOD PRICE ON VEGETABLE AND FRUIT EXPORT(2023) Bozma, Gürkan; Imamoglu, Ilyas KaysThis study examines the effects of gasoline prices, fluctuations in the actual exchange rate, and food prices on the export of vegetables and fruits from Turkey. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was utilized to examine the factors influencing the exports of vegetables and fruits from 2003:1 to 2019:12. The analysis was conducted with the assumption that the relationships between gasoline, actual exchange rates, and food prices are nonlinear. The objective of the study was to ascertain the asymmetric effects of gasoline, real exchange rate, and food prices on the exportation of vegetables and fruits. The findings of the NARDL model suggest that there is a significant relationship between long-term fluctuations in gasoline prices and the export of fruits and vegetables of different magnitudes. On the other hand, it has been observed that vegetable exports experience linear effects over an extended period in relation to the real exchange rate. On the other hand, it has been observed that fruit exports are susceptible to asymmetric effects. The present study suggests that fluctuations in food prices have diverse effects on vegetable exports.Öğe The Future of Export-Based Growth Policies in the Turkish Economy: An Econometric Simulation Approach(2023) Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Coşkun, HüseyinThe failure of the import substitution industrialization policies implemented in the Turkish economy between 1960 and 1980 led to the adopting of export-oriented policies for economic growth. In 1980, radical transformations were experienced in economic policies. Since 1980, exports have been attributed important meanings for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzes the long-run and short-run relationship between exports and economic growth in the Turkish economy by using the ARDL bounds test approach with annual data sets for the period 1987-2021 and forecasts Turkey's GDP per capita for the period 2022-2032 by econometric simulation method. The ARDL model estimation results show that exports have a statistically significant and positive effect on economic growth in the short and long run. According to the forecast analysis, it has been determined that the per capita GDP in 2032 will be $20990 in the base export scenario, $17327 in the low-export scenario, and nearly double to $25157 in the high-export scenario. These results show that it is possible for the GDP per capita to nearly double in the next ten years in the Turkish economy. Still, policy components are needed to increase exports by an average of 13.86% annually to reach these figures.Öğe The Role of Women's Entrepreneurship, Unemployment, Global Warming, and Technology in Sustainable Development: Evidence From OECD Countries(Wiley, 2025) Isik, Cem; Ongan, Serdar; Gunlu, Ebru; Aydin, Rahman; Imamoglu, Ilyas KaysThis study examines the effects of women's entrepreneurship, global warming, technological advancements, and unemployment on the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) across 38 OECD countries. Using country-specific panel causality methods, the analysis reveals significant asymmetries between developed and developing economies. Women's entrepreneurship (FEM) and technology (TEC) demonstrate stronger positive effects in developing countries such as Mexico, Slovakia, and Costa Rica, supporting SDGs 5 and 9. Global warming (SUR) negatively affects both groups, with notable impacts in Belgium, Mexico, and the UK, emphasizing the urgency of SDG 13. Unemployment (UNM) poses greater threats to sustainable development in emerging economies-particularly in Turkey and Latin American nations-while its influence remains limited in advanced countries. These results underscore the heterogeneous nature of SDG progress and suggest that universal, one-size-fits-all policies may fall short. Instead, national strategies should strengthen gender-inclusive entrepreneurship and innovation, while mitigating climate risks and labor market vulnerabilities. This paper presents a novel, multidimensional econometric framework and offers original insights into how interlinked economic, social, and environmental factors influence sustainability outcomes across diverse national contexts.Öğe The Role of Women's Labor Law and Business Freedom in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in OECD Countries(Wiley, 2025) Isik, Cem; Ongan, Serdar; Isik, Olcay; Aydin, Rahman; Imamoglu, Ilyas KaysBusiness freedom (FR) and women's labor law (WLL) are critical in achieving the SDGs. This research aims to test the effect of these two factors on the SDGs while also considering economic growth and energy efficiency, framing the analysis within the legal, economic, and environmental dynamics of the SDGs holistically. Fourier-augmented PANIC, cross-sectional dependence tests, panel OLS, bootstrap quantile regression, and panel Granger causality tests are applied for this aim. The OLS and bootstrap quantile regression analyses indicate that while FR negatively affects SDG at lower quantiles, these effects turn positive in higher quantiles. This can mean that in countries with high institutional quality, the freedom to do business becomes a tool for supporting sustainable economic development. The WLL has positive effects on SDGs in all quantiles except the 20th quantile. This result clearly shows the decisive role of women's labor rights and legal protections in driving sustainable development. The Granger causality test also supports these results: FR and WLL have a positive Granger causality effect on the SDGs. Additionally, while GDP positively affects SDGs in all quantiles, renewable energy efficiency negatively affects SDGs at low quantiles and has a positive impact at higher quantiles.Öğe Yönetişim, İnovasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkiler: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Örnekleri(2023) Imamoglu, Ilyas Kays; Özdemir, DilekÜlkelerarası gelir farklılıkları iktisat biliminin temel inceleme alanına girmektedir. Ülkeler arasındaki bu farklılıkları yönlendiren unsurların ele alınması ülkelerin ekonomik yönden büyüyebilmesi ve kalkınabilmesi için anahtar faktörlerin belirlenmesi, sürdürülebilir büyümenin tesis edilmesine katkı sağlayacaktır. Bu nedenle çalışmada, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan üst orta ve alt orta gelirli ülkelerde 2006-2017 dönemi için yönetişim, inovasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmada ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki ilişki, panel veri varsayımlarındaki sapmalara karşı dirençli bir tahminci olan Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisiyle test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre; her üç ülke grubunda yönetişim ile büyüme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki, inovasyon ile büyüme arasında ise yalnızca gelişmekte olan üst orta gelirli ülkelerde pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan alt orta gelirli ülkelerde ise inovasyon ve büyüme arasında herhangi bir anlamlı ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca yönetişim ve inovasyon ve büyüme ilişkisindeki aracılık etkisinin test edildiği araştırma modelinde ise her üç ülke grubunda da yönetişim ve inovasyonun büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır
