The Future of Export-Based Growth Policies in the Turkish Economy: An Econometric Simulation Approach

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dc.contributor.authorImamoglu, Ilyas Kays
dc.contributor.authorCoşkun, Hüseyin
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-28T11:58:03Z
dc.date.available2026-02-28T11:58:03Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentBayburt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe failure of the import substitution industrialization policies implemented in the Turkish economy between 1960 and 1980 led to the adopting of export-oriented policies for economic growth. In 1980, radical transformations were experienced in economic policies. Since 1980, exports have been attributed important meanings for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzes the long-run and short-run relationship between exports and economic growth in the Turkish economy by using the ARDL bounds test approach with annual data sets for the period 1987-2021 and forecasts Turkey's GDP per capita for the period 2022-2032 by econometric simulation method. The ARDL model estimation results show that exports have a statistically significant and positive effect on economic growth in the short and long run. According to the forecast analysis, it has been determined that the per capita GDP in 2032 will be $20990 in the base export scenario, $17327 in the low-export scenario, and nearly double to $25157 in the high-export scenario. These results show that it is possible for the GDP per capita to nearly double in the next ten years in the Turkish economy. Still, policy components are needed to increase exports by an average of 13.86% annually to reach these figures.
dc.identifier.doi10.29157/etusbed.1265732
dc.identifier.endpage56
dc.identifier.issn2717-8706
dc.identifier.issue17
dc.identifier.startpage39
dc.identifier.trdizinid1206057
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.29157/etusbed.1265732
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/1206057
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12403/5345
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizin
dc.language.isoen
dc.relation.ispartofErzurum Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_TR-Dizin_20260218
dc.subjectEconomic Growth
dc.subjectExport
dc.subjectForecasting and Simulation Technique
dc.titleThe Future of Export-Based Growth Policies in the Turkish Economy: An Econometric Simulation Approach
dc.typeArticle

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