The Prediction of Brent Crude Oil Trend Using LSTM and FacebookProphet
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Crude oil and petroleum products are among the critical inputs of industrial production and have an essential role in logistics andtransportation. Hence, sudden increases and decreases in oil prices cause particular problems in global economies and thus, they have adirect or indirect effect on economies. Furthermore, due to crises in developing economies, trade disputes between major economies,and the dynamic nature of the oil price effect on demand and supply for oil and petroleum products, and time to time volatility in theoil price are very severe. The uncertainty in oil prices can leave both consumers and producers with heavy potential losses. Due to thisrapid variability, predicting oil prices has global importance. In this study, to increase the accuracy and stability, the Long-Short TermMemory (LSTM) and Facebook's Prophet (FBPr) were applied to foresee future tendencies in Brent oil prices considering their previousprices. Comparing the two models made using the 32-year data set between June 1988 and June 2020 weekly for oil prices, and themodel with the best fit was determined. The dataset was split into two sets: training and test sets—the twenty-five years are used for thetraining set and the seven years are used to validate forecasting accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) for the LSTM and FBPrmodels was found as 0.92, 0.89 in the training stage, and 0.89, 0.62 in the testing stage, respectively. According to the results obtained,the LSTM model has superior results to predict the trend of oil prices.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynak
Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
0
Sayı
20
