Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia)

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dc.authoridRode, Michael/0000-0003-0086-2033
dc.authoridD'ORIA, Marco/0000-0002-5154-7052
dc.authoridJomaa, Seifeddine/0000-0003-4782-9468
dc.authoridZhou, Xiangqian/0000-0003-1143-9062
dc.authoridYildirim, Umit/0000-0002-7631-7245
dc.authoridKhlifi, Slaheddine/0000-0002-6100-8239
dc.authoridBen Nsir, Siwar/0000-0001-9495-7062
dc.contributor.authorBen Nsir, Siwar
dc.contributor.authorJomaa, Seifeddine
dc.contributor.authorYildirim, Umit
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Xiangqian
dc.contributor.authorD'Oria, Marco
dc.contributor.authorRode, Michael
dc.contributor.authorKhlifi, Slaheddine
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-04T18:48:19Z
dc.date.available2024-10-04T18:48:19Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentBayburt Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km(2). First, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981-1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, -9.5%) for calibration (September 1982-August 1984) and validation (September 1984-August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981-2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 degrees C of global warming. By long-term (2070-2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 degrees C and 4 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Jendouba in Tunisia; Ministry of High Education and Scientific Researchen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe data sets utilized in this study in part originated from the Master's dissertation of the author Siwar Ben Nsir, which was supported by the Higher School of Engineers of Medjez El Bab, University of Jendouba in Tunisia, under the supervision of Slaheddine Khlifi and Seifeddine Jomaa. The authors would also like to acknowledge the scholarship provided by the Ministry of High Education and Scientific Research to the author Siwar Ben Nsir for her internship at UFZ. We used the R programing language for the analysis of climate data.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/w14142242
dc.identifier.issn2073-4441
dc.identifier.issue14en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85137379246en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/w14142242
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12403/3017
dc.identifier.volume14en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000833091100001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMdpien_US
dc.relation.ispartofWateren_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjecthydrological modelingen_US
dc.subjectHBV-light modelen_US
dc.subjectMediterraneanen_US
dc.subjectdischargeen_US
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectRCP4en_US
dc.subject5 and 8en_US
dc.subject5en_US
dc.titleAssessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia)en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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