Evaluation of Optimal Energy Productıon Usıng Deterministic, Probabilistic and Risky Cases In a Multi-Reservoir System

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dc.authoridopan, mucahit/0000-0002-5778-389X
dc.contributor.authorBacaksiz, Efsun
dc.contributor.authorOpan, Mucahit
dc.contributor.authorDilek, Zuhal Elif Kara
dc.contributor.authorKaradeniz, Murat
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-04T18:49:47Z
dc.date.available2024-10-04T18:49:47Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentBayburt Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractIn a multi-reservoir system, the stochastic nature of basin data resulting from rainfall introduces risk into water management operations. Effective management that accounts for these risks can obtain maximum benefits from the system. This study presents a description of a multi-reservoir water resources system with hydroelectric power plants, utilizing the energy optimization model developed by OPAN in 2007. The model was applied to reservoirs located successively on the Lower Kizilirmak River in the Kizilirmak Basin, with the objective function being the maximization of firm power by using drought period inflows and total energy by using monthly average inflows. The study considered three scenarios: deterministic, probabilistic, and risky (critical cases), with probabilities of inflows from the basin being determined for the latter. Monthly inflows with determined probabilities were used to obtain data for the risky case. Optimum operating levels were determined based on this data to maximize firm power and total energy. According to the operating levels, the reservoir with the largest useful volume manages the operation. The values obtained from the optimization were then used in multivariate regression analysis using the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS), a statistical analysis program. The analysis explored the effects of monthly operating levels in the reservoirs, the amount of inflow released from the spillway, the amount of inflow released for energy production, the monthly average inflow to the reservoirs, and firm power values on energy production.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11269-023-03633-7
dc.identifier.endpage5848en_US
dc.identifier.issn0920-4741
dc.identifier.issn1573-1650
dc.identifier.issue15en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85174217070en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage5829en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03633-7
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12403/3282
dc.identifier.volume37en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001083605000001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofWater Resources Managementen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectMulti-Reservoir Systemsen_US
dc.subjectEnergy Productionen_US
dc.subjectCritical Casesen_US
dc.subjectDynamic Programmingen_US
dc.subjectSPSSen_US
dc.subjectMultivariate Regression Analysisen_US
dc.titleEvaluation of Optimal Energy Productıon Usıng Deterministic, Probabilistic and Risky Cases In a Multi-Reservoir Systemen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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