Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2026
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
ASERS Publishing House
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation. © 2026 The Author(s).
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Frequency Domain Causality, Geopolitical Risk, Global Inflation
Kaynak
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q4
Cilt
17
Sayı
2
