Are Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024

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dc.contributor.authorYıldız, Ümit
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-01T15:47:37Z
dc.date.available2026-09-01T15:47:37Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.departmentBayburt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and global inflation and examines whether this causal effect, if any, is persistent. To this end, the stationarity of the annual Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and global inflation series for the 1985–2024 period was first analyzed using the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test, which concluded that the series are stationary at levels. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using a stationary frequency domain causality approach, revealing a unidirectional causal relationship running from GPR to global inflation at both low and high frequencies. The causality identified at low frequencies indicates that this causal effect is permanent. The findings of the study suggest that mitigating geopolitical risks is of vital importance in the fight against global inflation. © 2026 The Author(s).
dc.identifier.doi10.14505/tpref.v17.2(38).19
dc.identifier.endpage588
dc.identifier.issn2068-7710
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105043696007
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ4
dc.identifier.startpage582
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v17.2(38).19
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12403/8353
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorYıldız, Ümit
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherASERS Publishing House
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_Scopus_20260820
dc.subjectFrequency Domain Causality
dc.subjectGeopolitical Risk
dc.subjectGlobal Inflation
dc.titleAre Geopolitical Risks a Permanent Driver of Global Inflation? Evidence from 1985-2024
dc.typeArticle

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